Taiwan issue could lead to war, says China
By John Kerin
08mar05

CHINA is demanding that the Howard Government review its 50-year-old military pact with the US, warning that the ANZUS alliance could threaten regional stability if Australia were drawn into Sino-US conflict over Taiwan.

Under the ANZUS alliance, Australia is obliged to support the US should China resort to force to resolve its long-running dispute with Taiwan.

But a top Chinese official - Beijing's director-general of North American and Oceanian Affairs, He Yafei - told The Australian that Australia and the US needed to be careful not to invoke the ANZUS alliance against China.

"We all know Taiwan is part of China, and we do not want to see in any way the Taiwan issue become one of the elements that will be taken up by bilateral military alliances, be it Australia-US or Japan-US," he said.

"If there were any move by Australia and the US in terms of that alliance (ANZUS) that is detrimental to peace and stability in Asia, then it (Australia) has to be very careful."

Asked if he were referring to Taiwan, Mr He said "especially so". "It (Taiwan) is our internal affair."

But a spokesman for Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said last night that Australia had no plans to alter any of its commitments. "Neither Australia nor the US have any plans to amend the ANZUS alliance," he said.

But Mr Downer hinted at a policy shift on Taiwan in Beijing last year, when he suggested Australia might not have to go to Taiwan's aid under the terms of ANZUS because a flare-up might not constitute a direct attack on US interests.

He was quickly corrected by Prime Minister John Howard, but the Downer comments raised expectations in Beijing that Australia now considers its more than $20 billion-a-year trade relationship with China as too important to sacrifice over Taiwan.

Australian National University Strategic and Defence Studies Centre board chairman Paul Dibb said the warning from Beijing was simply another sign of China's "growing economic strength and predominance in the Asia-Pacific".

"China is gaining confidence and this suggests it wants to throw its weight around a bit," he said yesterday.

But China's objection could not change Australia's policy, which was to make a decision at the time if it came to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

"There's little doubt the US would expect Australian support in the event of naked aggression against Taiwan by China," Professor Dibb said.

"If the Taiwanese provoke an attack, then that might be different."

Lowy Institute security analyst Alan Dupont said he could not recall a Chinese official referring directly to the ANZUS alliance.

"It's a reminder that our relationship with China is rather fragile, and that intervention in Taiwan could have negative consequences for our political and economic relationship," he said.

Dr Dupont said there was also concern in Beijing about how trilateral security talks between Australia, the US and Japan might develop in relation to Taiwan.

A Taiwan government spokesman told The Australian that China had no right to attempt to influence the policies of other nations towards Taipei.

"Those countries have taken a position on Taiwan they believe is in the best interests of stability and security in the region," he said.

The comments come after Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing told Tokyo and Washington on Sunday to drop Taiwan from their joint security pact.

He was commenting after Tokyo and Washington named Taiwan as an issue of "strategic" concern during defence talks in Washington.

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