Beneficiary of war in Iraq will really be Iran

By Robert S. McElvaine
Special to The Clarion-Ledger
August 11, 2005

An American president's reaction to a war a century ago provides an illuminating point of comparison in asses-sing which nation is likely to emerge as the ultimate beneficiary of the current war in Iraq.When the Russo-Japanese War began in 1904, President Theodore Roosevelt wrote to his son, Theodore Jr.: "Between ourselves — for you must not breathe it to anybody, I was thoroughly pleased with the Japanese victory, for Japan is playing our game."

As Roosevelt saw it, Russian dominance in the region, particularly in Manchuria, was an impediment to the "Open Door Policy" the United States favored, allowing American access to markets. Accordingly, Japan's weakening of Russia's grip would advance American interests.Moreover, the war was likely to weaken both countries and make them less formidable rivals to the United States in the Western Pacific. Roosevelt believed that the United States stood to be the real victor in a war in which it was not a belligerent.

U.S. playing Iran's game

How Roosevelt's assessment of that war in Northeast Asia relates to the current one in Southwest Asia begins with the fact that one of the questions President Bush did not address in his June 28 speech on the Iraq war was that of who will be the ultimate beneficiary of the current war.

While I was recently in South Korea participating in the Women's Worlds Congress, I found a good indication of the answer to that question. People from 90 countries attended the congress, but I was able to find only one in which delegates said that Mr. Bush is very popular.Which nation that is tells us a great deal about the effects of his war and whose game the United States is playing in Iraq. Delegates from Iran told me privately that George W. Bush has become the most popular American president ever in that nation.The reason is simply that he is doing for Iran with an early 21st century war what Theodore Roosevelt saw that Japan was doing for the United States with an early 20th century war.

U.S. now tied up in Iraq

The administrations of Ronald Reagan and the first George Bush understood that, evil as he obviously was, Saddam Hussein was the only serious obstacle to Iranian dominance of the Persian Gulf area and so they supported him in his war against Iran.

The Iranians were unable to defeat Iraq on their own, but now Americans are doing it for them. And, much as Japan exhausted its military resources in fighting Russia, the United States has the preponderance of its military assets tied up in Iraq and does not have much available with which to pressure Iran to stop its nuclear program.As the ultimate winner of the Russo-Japanese War was the United States, the ultimate winner of the American-Iraqi war will be Iran.No wonder George W. Bush is so popular in Iran. The Iranian rulers still see the United States as the Great Satan, but they have become the Devil's advocate when it comes to President Bush.

It is easy to imagine Iran's new hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saying to the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, something along the lines of: "Thanks to George W. Bush, America is playing Iran's game."In his address to the nation from Fort Bragg, Mr. Bush urged Americans to display the flag to show support for his war. He should have added that the appropriate flag to display to show who he has Americans dying for in this war is the Iranian flag.

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