N'Orleans Faces doomsday Scenerio!!!!!!!!Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2001

On whose watch did this doomsday scenerio come ?


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Subject: N'Orleans Faces doomsday Scenerio
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news:alt.discuss.state.louisiana.cajun-bayou
Subject: =A0=A0 NEW ORLEANS DOOMSDAY? Date: =A0=A0 Sat, Dec 1, 2001,
2:52pm (EST-1) Organization: =A0=A0 WebTV Subscriber
Printer-friendly format Dec. 1, 2001, 1:35AM KEEPING ITS HEAD ABOVE
WATER
New Orleans faces doomsday scenario
By ERIC BERGER Copyright 2001 Houston Chronicle Science Writer
New Orleans is sinking.
And its main buffer from a hurricane, the protective Mississippi River
delta, is quickly eroding away, leaving the historic city perilously
close to disaster.
So vulnerable, in fact, that earlier this year the Federal Emergency
Management Agency ranked the potential damage to New Orleans as among
the three likeliest, most castastrophic disasters facing this country.
The other two? A massive earthquake in San Francisco, and, almost
prophetically, a terrorist attack on New York City. The New Orleans
hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all. In the face of an
approaching storm, scientists say, the city's less-than-adequate
evacuation routes would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill
one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet of water.
Thousands of refugees could land in Houston. Economically, the toll
would be shattering. Southern Louisiana produces one-third of the
country's seafood, one-fifth of its oil and one-quarter of its natural
gas. The city's tourism, lifeblood of the French Quarter, would cease to
exist. The Big Easy might never recover.
And, given New Orleans' precarious perch, some academics wonder if it
should be rebuilt at all.
It's been 36 years since Hurricane Betsy buried New Orleans 8 feet deep.
Since then a deteriorating ecosystem and increased development have left
the city in an ever more precarious position. Yet the problem went
unaddressed for decades by a laissez-faire government, experts said. "To
some extent, I think we've been lulled to sleep," said Marc Levitan,
director of Louisiana State University's hurricane center. Hurricane
season ended Friday, and for the second straight year no hurricanes hit
the United States. But the season nonetheless continued a long-term
trend of more active seasons, forecasters said. Tropical Storm Allison
became this country's most destructive tropical storm ever. Yet despite
the damage Allison wrought upon Houston, dropping more than 3 feet of
water in some areas, a few days later much of the city returned to
normal as bloated bayous drained into the Gulf of Mexico. The same storm
dumped a mere 5 inches on New Orleans, nearly overwhelming the city's
pump system. If an Allison-type storm were to strike New Orleans, or a
Category 3 storm or greater with at least 111 mph winds, the results
would be cataclysmic, New Orleans planners said. "Any significant water
that comes into this city is a dangerous threat," Walter Maestri,
Jefferson Parish emergency management director, told Scientific American
for an October article.
"Even though I have to plan for it, I don't even want to think about the
loss of life a huge hurricane would cause."
New Orleans is essentially a bowl ringed by levees that protect the city
from the Mississippi River to its south and Lake Pontchartrain to the
north. The bottom of the bowl is 14 feet below sea level, and efforts to
keep it dry are only digging a deeper hole.
During routine rainfalls the city's dozens of pumps push water uphill
into the lake. This, in turn, draws water from the ground, further
drying the ground and sinking it deeper, a problem known as subsidence.
This problem also faces Houston as water wells have sucked the ground
dry. Houston's solution is a plan to convert to surface drinking water.
For New Orleans, eliminating pumping during a rainfall is not an option,
so the city continues to sink.
A big storm, scientists said, would likely block four of five evacuation
routes long before it hit. Those left behind would have no power or
transportation, and little food or medicine, and no prospects for a
return to normal any time soon.
"The bowl would be full," Levitan said. "There's simply no place for the
water to drain."
Estimates for pumping the city dry after a huge storm vary from six to
16 weeks. Hundreds of thousands would be homeless, their residences
destroyed.
The only solution, scientists, politicians and other Louisiana officials
agree, is to take large-scale steps to minimize the risks, such as
rebuilding the protective delta.
Every two miles of marsh between New Orleans and the Gulf reduces a
storm surge -- which in some cases is 20 feet or higher -- by half a
foot.
In 1990, the Breaux Act, named for its author, Sen. John Breaux, D-La.,
created a task force of several federal agencies to address the severe
wetlands loss in coastal Louisiana. The act has brought about $40
million a year for wetland restoration projects, but it hasn't been
enough.
"It's kind of been like trying to give aspirin to a cancer patient,"
said Len Bahr, director of Louisiana Gov. Mike Foster's coastal
activities office.
The state loses about 25 square miles of land a year, the equivalent of
about one football field every 15 minutes. The fishing industry, without
marshes, swamps and fertile wetlands, could lose a projected $37 billion
by the year 2050.
University of New Orleans researchers studied the impact of Breaux Act
projects on the vanishing wetlands and estimated that only 2 percent of
the loss has been averted. Clearly, Bahr said, there is a need for
something much bigger. There is some evidence this finally may be
happening.
A consortium of local, state and federal agencies is studying a $2
billion to $3 billion plan to divert sediment from the Mississippi River
back into the delta. Because the river is leveed all the way to the
Gulf, where sediment is dumped into deep water, nothing is left to
replenish the receding delta.
Other possible projects include restoration of barrier reefs and perhaps
a large gate to prevent Lake Pontchartrain from overflowing and drowning
the city.
All are multibillion-dollar projects. A plan to restore the Florida
Everglades attracted $4 billion in federal funding, but the state had to
match it dollar for dollar. In Louisiana, so far, there's only been a
willingness to match 15 or 25 cents.
"Our state still looks for a 100 percent federal bailout, but that's
just not going to happen," said University of New Orleans geologist Shea
Penland, a delta expert.
"We have an image and credibility problem. We have to convince our
country that they need to take us seriously, that they can trust us to
do a science-based restoration program."

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