Analysts Foresee Bleak Road Ahead in Iraq

Wednesday November 30, 2005 9:01 am

By CHARLES J. HANLEY

AP Special Correspondent

Two senior Army analysts who in 2003 accurately foretold the turmoil
that would be unleashed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq offer a bleak
assessment in a new study of what now lies ahead in that bloodied land.

They advise, however, against setting a timetable for U.S. troop
withdrawal - unless Washington finds the situation "irredeemable."

In their new 60-page report, veteran Middle East scholar Terrill and
Crane, director of the Army Military History Institute, say a U.S.
troop presence in Iraq probably cannot be sustained more than three
years further. Meantime, they write:

-"It appears increasingly unlikely that U.S., Iraqi and coalition
forces will crush the insurgency prior to the beginning of a phased
U.S. and coalition withdrawal."

They go on to recommend seeking stability with lowered
expectations, rather than abandoning Iraq to civil war.