Iraq War Architect Wolfowitz Can’t Get World Bank Into Iraq Because Of Bad Post War Planning…
Wolfowitz, in New Role, Blocked by Iraq Chaos He Didn't Foresee
By William McQuillen
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Wolfowitz is having trouble getting back into Iraq.
Wolfowitz, one of the architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, left President George W. Bush's administration in June to run the World Bank. His new role -- helping direct the redevelopment of schools, bridges and other infrastructure in Iraq -- is being hampered by the war's violence and instability, problems he once predicted wouldn't occur.
``There's not a lot you can do when the security is bad,'' said Ivan Eland, a former defense analyst at the Congressional Budget Office who is now with the Oakland, California-based policy group Independent Institute. ``You have trouble getting people to go there.''
The Washington-based World Bank, the largest financer of projects in developing nations, estimated in December 2003 that Iraq would need as much as $35.8 billion in reconstruction aid from 2005 through 2007. As of September 2005, the bank had financed only $156.8 million in projects and allocated $366 million more through a trust set up with the United Nations, World Bank documents show.
Former World Bank President James Wolfensohn relocated his staff in Iraq to Oman and Jordan after an August 2003 bombing near the bank's Baghdad headquarters killed at least 22 people.
It isn't clear when staff can return, said Wolfowitz, 61, who left his job as deputy defense secretary to replace the retiring Wolfensohn. The bank ``is weighing the relative risks against the potential gains in terms of greater effectiveness,'' Wolfowitz told reporters Sept. 19. ``There's no question it is dangerous.''
2,000 Dead
More than 2,000 U.S. servicemen have died in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion, as have hundreds of civilian contractors, as insurgents use homemade bombs, grenade launchers and other methods to disrupt military and humanitarian operations.
The World Bank doles out more than $22 billion a year in loans and grants that largely go toward erecting roads and bridges, building telecommunications networks and providing health-care and educational supplies in poor nations.
The bank first pledged to give $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion to Iraq at a donors' conference in December 2003. The $366 million the bank has allocated from the trust was for nine projects -- one of which has been completed -- mostly related to emergency water supplies and textbook distribution.
The $156.8 million is from the bank's traditional lending pool and went to 12 small projects that included building a school, constructing grain silos, patching up damaged roads and laying the groundwork for television linkups.
Being There
``The bank is going to put a lot of money in the country and will want to make sure it is well spent,'' said Edwin Truman, former assistant secretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department and now a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, a research group based in Washington. ``To do that, you have to be there.''
In July, the World Bank said Iraq would receive as much as $500 million more over two years to rebuild schools, restore infrastructure and provide emergency health care, representing the first loans to Iraq since 1973. The $500 million will be used to extend projects begun by the trust fund, the bank said.
The World Bank has provided more than $900 million in loans and grants to Afghanistan since the U.S.-led invasion there in October 2001. The World Bank had staffers on the ground about two months after the start of the war, and its first grant was issued within six months of the initial bombing.
No Problem With Oman
Wolfowitz said that while he would like to increase the rate of disbursing aid in Iraq, the bank has still been effective in administering programs. ``No one has talked about being in Oman as being a severe restriction,'' he told reporters.
The bank speaks with Iraqi officials by teleconference, and the needs there would be better served with World Bank evaluators working in a safe environment, Wolfowitz said. ``It is probably the case that the more you can concentrate your efforts in areas that are relatively secure, the faster things can move,'' he said.
As deputy defense secretary, Wolfowitz was a strong advocate of toppling Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. He argued that the U.S. would be greeted as a liberator and helped Bush craft a rationale for the invasion. In a February 2003 congressional appearance, he criticized opponents who said taking and maintaining control of Iraq would require a bigger troop presence than was planned.
Lowering Expectations
Immediately upon taking the World Bank post, Wolfowitz began lowering expectations about Iraq, saying the continuing violence there would limit the bank's ability to foster reconstruction and force the lender to focus attention elsewhere.
The violence that has escalated in Iraq since Bush declared military victory in May 2003 has caused Iraq's economy to stumble in the past year, according to an August report by the International Monetary Fund. Like the World Bank, the IMF conducted its review outside Iraq, in the neighboring United Arab Emirates.
The IMF report said oil production in Iraq was 2 million barrels a day, short of projections for 2.4 million barrels, because of the violent insurgency. That has left Iraq unable to take advantage of record-high oil prices. The IMF scaled back its expectations for economic growth to 4 percent from 17 percent.
``It is one of the most dangerous places where we have sent westerners in modern time,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. ``It is effectively a country at war.''
Solving the Problem
Iraqis voted on a new constitution Oct. 15, paving the way for general elections Dec. 31. The U.S. hopes the new government elected then will take a greater role in battling the insurgency and ease pressure on the U.S. military.
The World Bank and other organizations still play an important role in showing the insurgents that U.S.-led groups are interested in rebuilding the country, analysts say. Having people on the ground would help the bank make assessments, though the danger in Iraq hardly makes it worthwhile at the moment, O'Hanlon said.
``They definitely have people there who they work with, but there is no doubt that it reduces the quality of the analysis'' not having people there, O'Hanlon said. ``I don't necessarily think the World Bank will solve this problem even if they had all the available information.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
William McQuillen in Washington at bmcquillen@bloomberg.net.
Link Here
By William McQuillen
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Wolfowitz is having trouble getting back into Iraq.
Wolfowitz, one of the architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, left President George W. Bush's administration in June to run the World Bank. His new role -- helping direct the redevelopment of schools, bridges and other infrastructure in Iraq -- is being hampered by the war's violence and instability, problems he once predicted wouldn't occur.
``There's not a lot you can do when the security is bad,'' said Ivan Eland, a former defense analyst at the Congressional Budget Office who is now with the Oakland, California-based policy group Independent Institute. ``You have trouble getting people to go there.''
The Washington-based World Bank, the largest financer of projects in developing nations, estimated in December 2003 that Iraq would need as much as $35.8 billion in reconstruction aid from 2005 through 2007. As of September 2005, the bank had financed only $156.8 million in projects and allocated $366 million more through a trust set up with the United Nations, World Bank documents show.
Former World Bank President James Wolfensohn relocated his staff in Iraq to Oman and Jordan after an August 2003 bombing near the bank's Baghdad headquarters killed at least 22 people.
It isn't clear when staff can return, said Wolfowitz, 61, who left his job as deputy defense secretary to replace the retiring Wolfensohn. The bank ``is weighing the relative risks against the potential gains in terms of greater effectiveness,'' Wolfowitz told reporters Sept. 19. ``There's no question it is dangerous.''
2,000 Dead
More than 2,000 U.S. servicemen have died in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion, as have hundreds of civilian contractors, as insurgents use homemade bombs, grenade launchers and other methods to disrupt military and humanitarian operations.
The World Bank doles out more than $22 billion a year in loans and grants that largely go toward erecting roads and bridges, building telecommunications networks and providing health-care and educational supplies in poor nations.
The bank first pledged to give $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion to Iraq at a donors' conference in December 2003. The $366 million the bank has allocated from the trust was for nine projects -- one of which has been completed -- mostly related to emergency water supplies and textbook distribution.
The $156.8 million is from the bank's traditional lending pool and went to 12 small projects that included building a school, constructing grain silos, patching up damaged roads and laying the groundwork for television linkups.
Being There
``The bank is going to put a lot of money in the country and will want to make sure it is well spent,'' said Edwin Truman, former assistant secretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department and now a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, a research group based in Washington. ``To do that, you have to be there.''
In July, the World Bank said Iraq would receive as much as $500 million more over two years to rebuild schools, restore infrastructure and provide emergency health care, representing the first loans to Iraq since 1973. The $500 million will be used to extend projects begun by the trust fund, the bank said.
The World Bank has provided more than $900 million in loans and grants to Afghanistan since the U.S.-led invasion there in October 2001. The World Bank had staffers on the ground about two months after the start of the war, and its first grant was issued within six months of the initial bombing.
No Problem With Oman
Wolfowitz said that while he would like to increase the rate of disbursing aid in Iraq, the bank has still been effective in administering programs. ``No one has talked about being in Oman as being a severe restriction,'' he told reporters.
The bank speaks with Iraqi officials by teleconference, and the needs there would be better served with World Bank evaluators working in a safe environment, Wolfowitz said. ``It is probably the case that the more you can concentrate your efforts in areas that are relatively secure, the faster things can move,'' he said.
As deputy defense secretary, Wolfowitz was a strong advocate of toppling Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. He argued that the U.S. would be greeted as a liberator and helped Bush craft a rationale for the invasion. In a February 2003 congressional appearance, he criticized opponents who said taking and maintaining control of Iraq would require a bigger troop presence than was planned.
Lowering Expectations
Immediately upon taking the World Bank post, Wolfowitz began lowering expectations about Iraq, saying the continuing violence there would limit the bank's ability to foster reconstruction and force the lender to focus attention elsewhere.
The violence that has escalated in Iraq since Bush declared military victory in May 2003 has caused Iraq's economy to stumble in the past year, according to an August report by the International Monetary Fund. Like the World Bank, the IMF conducted its review outside Iraq, in the neighboring United Arab Emirates.
The IMF report said oil production in Iraq was 2 million barrels a day, short of projections for 2.4 million barrels, because of the violent insurgency. That has left Iraq unable to take advantage of record-high oil prices. The IMF scaled back its expectations for economic growth to 4 percent from 17 percent.
``It is one of the most dangerous places where we have sent westerners in modern time,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. ``It is effectively a country at war.''
Solving the Problem
Iraqis voted on a new constitution Oct. 15, paving the way for general elections Dec. 31. The U.S. hopes the new government elected then will take a greater role in battling the insurgency and ease pressure on the U.S. military.
The World Bank and other organizations still play an important role in showing the insurgents that U.S.-led groups are interested in rebuilding the country, analysts say. Having people on the ground would help the bank make assessments, though the danger in Iraq hardly makes it worthwhile at the moment, O'Hanlon said.
``They definitely have people there who they work with, but there is no doubt that it reduces the quality of the analysis'' not having people there, O'Hanlon said. ``I don't necessarily think the World Bank will solve this problem even if they had all the available information.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
William McQuillen in Washington at bmcquillen@bloomberg.net.
Link Here
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