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Friday, November 04, 2005

Rice failed to win Russian support for the U.S. harsh stance against Iran's nuclear programme
10/29/2005 4:00:00 PM GMT

Last year, the founder and president of the Center for Security Policy (CSP), Frank Gaffney, an influential foreign-policy neo-conservative, with strong ties to top hawks in the Bush’s admin., laid out what he called ''a checklist of the work the world will demand of this president and his subordinates in a second term,'' IPS reported.

The list included the development of ''appropriate strategies'' for dealing with threats posed by China, Russia and called for ''regime change'' in Iran and North Korea.

Asia Times' Jephraim P. Gundzik, who dubbed China-Iran-Russia axis as "that other axis" wrote ealier this year that "Beijing's increasingly close ties with Moscow and Tehran will thwart Washington's foreign policy goal of expanding US security footholds in the Middle East, Central Asia."

"Initially, Moscow supported Washington's 'war on terrorism'. However, the U.S. invasion of Iraq changed this support into resistance, and later into active efforts to counterbalance the U.S. In the past two years both Washington and Moscow have sought to strengthen their influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. ... More significantly, Moscow is working diligently to strengthen its ties with Iran, Syria and China - countries that Washington considers to be adversaries," Gundzik wrote in March 2005. And since the "beginning of the war in Iraq," he said, "Beijing has worked feverishly ... in an apparent effort to prevent U.S. military action against the remaining 'axis of evil' members, Iran and North Korea. In addition to recent massive energy deals with Teheran, which place Iran in China's security web, both Beijing and Moscow have accelerated the transfer of missile technology to Teheran, while selling the Islamic republic increasingly sophisticated military equipment.

"Armed with a vast array of anti-ship and long-range missiles, Iran can target U.S. troop positions throughout the Middle East and strike U.S. Navy ships. Iran can also use its weapons to blockade the Straits of Hormuz through which one-third of the world's traded oil is shipped. With the help of Beijing and Moscow, Teheran is becoming an increasingly unappealing military target for the U.S."

The recent move by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)- the submission of a resolution demanding taking Iran’s nuclear dossier to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions brought more light on diplomatic and trade ties between Iran and Russia, with analysts predicting that soon Moscow will have to choose side with Iran and continue its cooperation with its nuclear programme, which Iran asserts is only used for peaceful purposes, or surrender to Washington’s pressure and join the army fighting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, suggests an editorial published on Janes Information Group’s website.

The IAEA resolution came after continuous pressure from the United States and its European allies to report Iran to the Security Council.

But earlier this month, the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice failed to win Russian support for the U.S. harsh stance against Iran's nuclear programme.

Russian nuclear collaboration with Iran has long been an irritant in the United States. Iran’s nuclear ambitions and persistence to enrich uranium added a new dimension to the controversy surrounding the two countries’ ties.

Russia's most significant contribution to Iran’s nuclear program is the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) at Bushehr, which started originally by Siemens, a German company in the 1970s. In 1995, Russia agreed to complete this project, after signing a pact with Iran. And although the IAEA was given access to the plant, in an attempt to dismiss claims that it could be used in the interests of a nuclear weapons program, the project has caused an international standoff and brought Iran under increasing pressure to halt all nuclear activities. Also although Russia is a leading oil exporter which means that its economy won’t be affected if Iran threatened to cut oil sales, Moscow seems ready to co-operate with both the U.S. and Tehran with the aim of keeping trade relations with both countries, since the Russian nuclear industry is dependent on the completion of Iran's USD1 billion Bushehr project, expected to bring Russia billion-dollar contracts in the future.

Moreover, Russia's defence industries, which depends on selling weapons systems and aircraft to Iran, is in a desperate need of an economic boost through exports.

China, on the other hand has become increasingly dependent on Iran for energy. In November last year, China signed a US$70 billion oil and natural gas agreement with Iran, No. 2 OPEC producer. The deal stipulates that Sinopec Group will buy 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas over 30 years from Iran and develop the giant Yadavaran field. It also states that Iran is will export 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to China for 25 years at market prices after commissioning of the field.

For Washington, increasingly pointing at China as the next biggest challenge to its Pax Americana, such huge oil and gas deals threaten the U.S. administration's attempts to break the Iranian economy by imposing sanctions on Iran. America also fears that such cooperation may encourage others, who still see Iran as untrustworthy, to enter into big projects on a long term basis.

But now, Russia must assess the likelihood of being supplanted by China if it appears willing to trade favors with Washington and break ties with Tehran. Iran may emerge as a member of a post-Cold War alliance, trying to undermine U.S. regional objectives, according to the Janes editorial.

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