Bush’s future rests on one struggle

2005 was the year President GEORGE W. BUSH gained the Medusa Touch. For BUSH, the year started in a mood of optimism, with his inauguration in Washington and IRAQ's January election. But since then, everything that the American President has touched has turned into stone. According to an article published by the Time Online, the biggest domestic challenge in BUSH’s second term, Social Security reform, hit political roadblock this year, while Hurricane Katrina exposed a poor disaster-response system, and an unexpected flawed political operation.

The aborted nomination of Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court and Scooter Libby’s indictment on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice and the continuing investigation into Karl Rove added to the administration’s political injury.

BUSH’s recent admission that he authorized secret post-Sept. 11 spying in the United States was another stunning development. According to the Associated Press, the President defended the spying program as "consistent with U.S. law and the Constitution." However, this wasn’t what other congressional Democrats believed. "I tell you, he's President George Bush, not King George Bush. This is not the system of government we have and that we fought for," said Sen. Russell Feingold, D-Wis.

News of the spying program came as Bush was fighting to save the expiring provisions of the USA Patriot Act, the domestic anti-terrorism law enforced after 9/11. Democrats and a few Republicans who say the law gives so much power to law enforcement officials that it threatens Americans' constitutional rights succeeded in stalling its renewal.

All this was domestically. Abroad, it was even worse. The U.S.‘s image, already damaged by prisoner abuse scandals in Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay, was further hit by reports of secret CIA flights and detention facilities in Europe. Moreover, conditions in Afghanistan are not better, Iran doesn’t want to give up its nuclear program, and of course the major disaster is IRAQ.

The Time Online editorial suggests that Bush’s political future depends on the outcome of two fierce battles; the one between U.S. occupation forces and Iraqi resistance fighters, and the one between Republicans and Democrats on the war itself. No one who has listened to Bush’s recent speeches can dispute that if he was able, he would have sent more troops to Iraq to promote his “democracy” goals. But at the same time, the Republicans, who don’t want to fight the 2008 presidential election with a war still raging in IRAQ, call for reduction of U.S. forces in 2006, let alone the Democrats and other anti-war groups who press for an immediate withdrawal.

Recent polls show that the support for Bush’s handling of war is at its lowest point. This change in public opinion is mainly due to the growing U.S. death toll, with more than 2,100 American soldiers killed so far, and a growing belief that the war is failing. As Peter Feaver, an expert on public opinion who is now serving as a White House adviser, recently said: Americans will tolerate casualties when they believe that a war is fair and has reasonable prospect of success. But they now doubt these two points.

Less than a year into his second term, this is the most frequently asked question in the U.S.: Is GEORGE BUSH finished? The political picture isn’t all rosy. As a president nears the end of his term, it gets harder for him to achieve much of anything. With mid-term elections in November 2006, attention will shift quickly to the presidential race beyond.

The Times article suggests that the only hope for BUSH now is the one man who once threatened to be his nemesis John McCain, the once maverick senator from Arizona, at odds with the Bush administration on a number of political issues, but who is also a strong supporter of the war and of BUSH’s desire to “stay the course”. He is also known to have a rare ability to win the support of political independents. Simply put, McCain could be the only way to resolve the struggle between a legacy and an election campaign. President Medusa’s aides must make sure he doesn’t get too close to him.