Just Foreign Policy Iraqi Death Estimator    

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Today's shocker(s) from Iraq


Eli Stephens, Left I on the News

One story, three shockers. Shock one--the basic story: "Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000" Shock two--the details: "Of the total 655,000 estimated "excess deaths," 601,000 resulted from violence and the rest from disease and other causes, according to the study." I have to say that, scientific method or no scientific method, I find this very hard to believe, given the state of public health (water, etc.) and actual health care (hospitals, etc.) in Iraq. Perhaps the only thing that explains it is that, after a decade of sanctions, things were already so much worse than "normal." Imagine if their baseline had been the 1980's...

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A team of American and Iraqi public health researchers has estimated that 600,000 civilians have died in violence across Iraq since the 2003 American invasion, the highest estimate ever for the toll of the war here. The figure breaks down to about 15,000 violent deaths a month, a number that is quadruple the one for July given by Iraqi government hospitals and the morgue in Baghdad and published last month in a United Nations report in Iraq. That month was the highest for Iraqi civilian deaths since the American invasion. But it is an estimate and not a precise count, and researchers acknowledged a margin of error that ranged from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths...

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