Surging for Shiites

Stephen P. Pizzo, Atlantic Free Press

...What They Say: Less than a month into the surge the level of violence in and around Baghdad has fallen sharply. US and Iraqi government troops have moved peacefully into Sadr City, the stronghold of the powerful Shia Mahdi Army. All that is true. Violence has dropped and the Mahdi Army has become all but invisible. The question is not what's happening, but why it's happening. Why has the violence dropped? The administration believes it's because their latest "clear and hold," surge strategy has finally turned the trick for them. Higfives all around. Wrong. Quite the opposite in fact. Here's what's really happening. When Bush first announced his surge plan Shiite leaders, (particularly that little two-legged tumor, Muqtada al-Sadr,) took stock of the situation and decided that, rather than being a threat to them, Bush's surge was a potential solution – to the "Sunni problem." (...) This time, Shiites decided why not just lay low, just sit out the surge. It;s a luxury Shiites knew their Sunni opponents could not afford. The Sunnis, Iraq's minority sect, is fighting for nothing less than its very survival. And the day the Sunnis stop fighting is the day they lose, in a region where "losing" doesn't mean "wait til next season." Because there will be no next season for the losers. The second part of Bush's surge strategy focuses on Iraq's troubled Anbar province — more good news for Iraq's Shiites and their supporters in Tehran. Anbar is the center of gravity of the Sunni insurgency. Getting the picture? Bush's surge is going to end up weakening the Sunni insurgency and strengthening Shiite dominance. Why on earth would Shiite fighters do anything but sit back and enjoy the show? Which is precisely what they are doing. While George W. Bush makes Iraq safe for Iranian-backed Shiites, leaders like perennial troublemaker al Sadr are busy too. They are in Iran spending their surge down-time to do some post-graduate training at the University of Lunatic Islamic Governance in Tehran. ..

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