Ignore The Pundits:

Hillary's Research Director: How To Know Who Won The Debate

Here's what I learned: the pundits are full of it. They don't know any more than you do and many of them have a vested interest in tilting the scales one way or another. After the debate ends, if you want to know who won, turn off the TV. You can figure it out for yourself.
The first thing to understand is that the winner of the debate isn't the person who makes the best arguments. If it was, Al Gore would be finishing up his second term. The winner of the debate is the person who moves votes to their side. You can figure out who that will be by focusing on these three factors:
1. 30 seconds are more important than 90 minutes. Although tens of millions of people will watch the debate, most everyone will forget the bulk of it immediately. The lasting impression of the debate for most voters will be the two or three exchanges -- usually less than 15 seconds long -- that are replayed, discussed, and analyzed over and over again. More often than not, whoever gets the best of these moments wins the debate.
For example, in the Des Moines Register debate in mid-December, Obama was asked a pretty tough question: How he could rely on so many former Clinton advisers and still represent a break from the past? Hillary laughed and said, "I want to hear that!" Obama flashed a smile and shot back: "Hillary, I'm looking forward to you advising me as well." It was a pitch-perfect response and catnip for the media, which played the exchange repeatedly for days. Overall, Hillary turned in a very solid performance and demonstrated an impressive command of the issues. But it didn't matter. Obama had won the key 15 seconds and it gave him a critical boost just days before the Iowa caucus.

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