Worse to come for US, UK in Iraq, Afghanistan, says expert:

London, June 2, IRNA

The insurgent campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan are exerting severe pressure on US and UK forces - and there is more to come, according to a leading British security expert.

Professor of Peace Studies Paul Rodgers said that the "turning- point" in Iraq hailed last week by President George W Bush coincided with more problems for the coalition forces there.

But like other turning-points over the past three years, each time the expectations they raise have been unfounded, Rogers said in his latest weekly article for OpenDemocracy.

"The optimism of the US president or his close ally Tony Blair paid little heed to the fact that key ministries remained filled," he said in reference to appointing new Iraqi defence and interior ministers.

The professor from Bradford University in northern England further pointed out this was against the backdrop of a series of bombings across central Iraq and a rapid deterioration in security in Basra, prompting the declaration of a state of emergency.

"Every day, scores of Iraqi civilians are being killed. In addition, the British have had one of their worst months since the beginning of the war, while the easing of US casualties in March was brutally reversed," he said.

Rogers discounted the feasibility of handing over security to the Iraqi police and guards, saying the training had been frequently minimal, that background checks had often been ignored and that there was a trend of particular loyalties to different ministries.

While the security situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate, he said there are also further indications of the slide towards open insurgency in Afghanistan.

"The evidence of the past few weeks indicates that Taliban militia groups have hugely increased in confidence, taking over some districts and even engaging foreign troops in large groups of fifty- strong or more," the security expert said.

He said that this is all very far removed from the political rhetoric of Bush and Blair, with their determined efforts to present a positive picture, even if they do now admit to some errors.

"The reality is that the military problems are mounting by the week in both Iraq and Afghanistan, an uncomfortable political reality that will become more widely evident as the insurgents' springtime turns into a hot summer," Rogers concluded.

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