Clinton's Mississippi Republicans
By Mark Blumenthal, NationalJournal.com© National Journal Group Inc.Wednesday, March 12, 2008Last week's column covered some of the nagging problems with exit polls and the way some of us, arguably, misuse them. This week, let's look at the reason exit polls are so vital and important to our understanding of elections, particularly Tuesday's Mississippi primary.
The Mississippi exit poll tabulations posted on network Web sites last night show a new wrinkle in the Democratic presidential contest: Twelve percent of the Democratic primary voters in Mississippi described themselves as Republicans, a level far higher than in previous primaries. As the pro-Barack Obama Jed Report notes, the percentage of Republican identifiers voting in Democratic nomination contests has increased significantly in recent weeks -- from 4 percent in states that held primaries in January and February to 9 percent in the March 4 primaries to 12 percent in Mississippi on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Hillary Rodham Clinton's support among Republicans (in the states where the Republican subgroup was large enough to merit reporting) rose from 31 percent in January and February to 48 percent on March 4 to 75 percent in Mississippi. Overall, 9 percent of the Mississippi Democratic primary voters were self-identified Republicans who voted for Clinton.
If nothing else, those sorts of findings would be impossible without standardized, representative sample surveys of actual voters. Mississippi lacks party registration, so it would be impossible to check the party affiliation of voters there without an exit poll. Moreover, given the myriad of registration laws and procedures, the standard party identification question used on the exit poll (which asks voters whether they "usually think of" themselves as a Democrat, Republican or independent) is the only way to make such comparisons across states.
But the plot thickens. We really want to know why so many Republicans voted in the Mississippi Democratic primary. Are they ready to support a Democratic nominee, or are they just voting to help John McCain and undermine the Democrats? Or is there another reason? >>>cont
Meanwhile, Hillary Rodham Clinton's support among Republicans (in the states where the Republican subgroup was large enough to merit reporting) rose from 31 percent in January and February to 48 percent on March 4 to 75 percent in Mississippi. Overall, 9 percent of the Mississippi Democratic primary voters were self-identified Republicans who voted for Clinton.
If nothing else, those sorts of findings would be impossible without standardized, representative sample surveys of actual voters. Mississippi lacks party registration, so it would be impossible to check the party affiliation of voters there without an exit poll. Moreover, given the myriad of registration laws and procedures, the standard party identification question used on the exit poll (which asks voters whether they "usually think of" themselves as a Democrat, Republican or independent) is the only way to make such comparisons across states.
But the plot thickens. We really want to know why so many Republicans voted in the Mississippi Democratic primary. Are they ready to support a Democratic nominee, or are they just voting to help John McCain and undermine the Democrats? Or is there another reason? >>>cont
The Limbaugh Effect?
posted by Kangaroo Brisbane Australia at 2:23 PM
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