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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Who Won The Last Debate? Obama Dominates By Largest Margins Yet

Debate is on

John McCain didn't just fail to get the game-changer he needed -- he was trounced in this third and final debate, if the instant post-debate polling provides any indication.
The results over at CBS show Obama to have scored the biggest victory to date: "Fifty-three percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed identified Democratic nominee Barack Obama as the winner of tonight's debate. Twenty-two percent said Republican rival John McCain won. Twenty-four percent saw the debate as a draw."
It is, the site writes, "a clean sweep" for the Illinois Democrat.
Over at CNN, a separate poll of several hundred debate watchers again favored the Democrat by large margins: 58 percent for Obama to McCain's 31 percent. Perhaps more importantly, McCain's favorable rating dropped 51 to 49 while his unfavorable rating increased from 45 percent to 49 percent. Obama ended up with 66 percent favorable rating.
Digging into the details the news is even worse for the Arizona Republican.
Asked who "expressed his views more clearly" 66 percent said Obama, 25 percent said McCain. "Who spent their time attacking his opponent:" 80 percent said McCain, seven percent said Obama. "Who seemed to be the stronger leader:" 56 percent for Obama, 39 percent for McCain. And who was "more likeable:" 70 percent for Obama to McCain's 22 percent.
CNN also conducted a smaller focus group of 25 undecided likely voters in Ohio, and Obama won that too, 15-10.
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, meanwhile, conducted some polling before and after the debate and here are his findings.
Stan Greenberg's Focus Group: "Decisive" for Obama
As I type this, Stan Greenberg is briefing reporters on his focus group of undecided voters in Colorado. He said the respondents felt Obama "won" and that the results were "more decisive than either of the last two." That's a reference to Greenberg's previous focus groups, which also came away preferring Obama.
The most striking result came on the favorability ratings. Although the focus group was officially undecided, it leaned towards McCain. Here were the favorability-unfavorability ratings for each candidate at the start:
McCain: 54 favorable / 34 unfavorable
Obama: 42 favorable / 42 unfavorable
Here's what the ratings looked like after the debate:
McCain: 50 favorable / 48 unfavorable
Obama: 72 favorable / 22 unfavorable
Interestingly, Obama's most popular answer was about education. The focus group seemed particularly pleased about his riff on asking parents to take more responsibility for their children. According to Greenberg, this is likely part of the reason the focus group felt that, overall, Obama shares their values.

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